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No. 18 Notre Dame (1-1) at Purdue (1-0)
Date: Saturday, September 14
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
In what may be the perfect bounce-back spot for Notre Dame, I’m backing the Fighting Irish defense to deliver on the road against a lesser opponent.
The pick — Purdue team total UNDER 17.5 points (-125, FanDuel)
In a shock to no one, the recent history between the two teams has strongly favored Notre Dame.
The Irish have won nine of the last 10 meetings dating back to 2006. And in the six games played since 2010, the Boilermakers have scored more than 17 points only once.
While my handicap isn’t specifically based on head-to-head history, it is noteworthy how dominant Notre Dame's defense has been in the series. It makes sense, given the Irish’s consistent top-tier recruiting and defensive talent compared to Purdue’s typical offensive capabilities.
For Saturday’s matchup, I expect more of the same.
In its two games this season, Notre Dame has been solid defensively, allowing no more than 16 points and giving up only 4.7 yards per play. While the Boilermakers had a strong offensive performance in a season-opening 49-0 victory over Indiana State, the Irish present a significantly tougher challenge.
Also don’t be surprised if Purdue attempts to replicate Northern Illinois' offensive strategy in last week’s 16-14 upset of the Irish by focusing on time of possession and trying to use long, methodical drives spearheaded by the running game. This approach could lead to extended drives and fewer scoring opportunities, as NIU won with just 16 points.
Injuries may assist with this bet, too. The Boilermakers could be without key Georgia transfer wide receiver CJ Smith (hamstring).
Given Notre Dame’s defensive advantage and Purdue’s first real test against a strong FBS team, the Boilermakers are likely to struggle to find the end zone and exceed this number.
Season record: 4-4, -0.20 units