No. 16 LSU (1-1) at South Carolina (2-0)
Date: Saturday, September 14
Time: Noon ET
TV: ABC
The pick — LSU -7 (-108, DraftKings)
This matchup is possible because the SEC went away from divisions. Previously, the two schools would only meet once every six years with LSU in the West and South Carolina in the East. Luckily, divisional-less SEC football will lead to more games like this one, and it’s an intriguing contest early in the season.
LSU has had another disappointing start under Brian Kelly. For the third-straight year, the Tigers dropped their opener in a 27-20 defeat to USC in Las Vegas, losing outright as a field-goal-plus favorite. In 2022, they fell to Florida State in New Orleans, and in 2023, they were beaten by the Seminoles in Orlando.
The last two seasons, LSU rebounded nicely after the FSU setbacks. In 2022, the Tigers won the SEC West, and last year, QB Jayden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy.
I believe LSU is undervalued against South Carolina because of the Week 1 loss. I also like Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier to make a splash in his first conference start.
I also think South Carolina is overvalued coming off a 31-6 win against Kentucky. The score looked a lot more flattering than it actually was for the Gamecocks, who gained only 252 total yards. Incompetence from the Wildcats offense played a bigger role in the blowout victory, which was capped off by a South Carolina pick-six early in the fourth quarter.
The strength of Shane Beamer’s team is its defensive line, but that will be negated by LSU, which has one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Tigers have a pair of potential first-round picks in offensive tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., and both will be able to protect Nussmeier long enough for him to make plays with his big arm.
Last season in Week 3, LSU was in a similar road favorite role against Mississippi State and won 41-14. I don’t expect that kind of dominance from this version of the Tigers on Saturday, but there’s enough of a point-spread discount to buy low on the road team.
Season record: 6-2, +3.76 units