Risk management is fundamental to any fantasy football strategy. Hey, no one wants to endure heartbreak. To help owners avoid sob sessions, Brad Evans unveils the top bust candidates — aka Fantasy Lames — for the 2024 NFL season.
Position rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Cheat Sheet
1. Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions, RB (ADP: 12.06, RB5)
Was #MandatoryMontgomery swallowed whole by a voracious land shark? Gibbs is a superbly talented running back whose role as a pass catcher could lead to more downfield opportunities, but outside of that reported development, not much has changed in Detroit.
The offensive environment is ripe — especially considering the Lions offensive line is unquestionably elite — but Gibbs’ price tag is inflated. Last year, he finished RB10 in 0.5 PPR, playing 51.2% of the opportunity share (15.6 touches per game). His red-zone usage did steadily rise as the season went on and his advanced analytics profile was a plus (top 25 in YAC/attempt and total missed tackles), but a near 50/50 split with Montgomery in those situations is likely again.
Gibbs might tack on a few more catches and yards from the 52 grabs and 316 receiving yards he tallied last year, but the touch distribution remains unchanged. And his middle-of-the-pack strength of schedule (No. 18 for RBs) only further suggests the bullish cost.
2. Malik Nabers, Giants, WR (ADP: 38.59, WR24)
The rookie receiver landing on this list isn’t an indictment of his baseline skills. They’re phenomenal. It has everything to do with the unsupportive environment.
With Nabers now dealing with a minor ankle injury, one has to wonder if it’s a sign of misfortune to come. Make no mistake, the No. 6 overall pick has the separation and route-running talents to flourish. Last year at LSU, he was top-five nationally in total deep yards (624) and missed tackles forced (30). The slick youngster also tallied a 108 or greater passer rating on six different routes.
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The established tree and remarkable abilities are apparent. So is the path to opportunity. If Nabers plays 17 games, 130 or more targets are inevitable. However, his quarterbacks couldn’t splash the ocean from five feet out.
Daniel Jones and Drew Lock are downright putrid. And New York’s bottom-10 offensive line won’t do them any favors.
Again, Nabers is a legit talent, and the volume will be there. However, his WR24 price suggests a negative return. He’s a solid WR3, but a questionable WR2 in 12-team leagues.
3. Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals, WR (ADP: 15.35, WR9)
Backing up the truck over another hyped rookie, Arizona’s shiny new toy is being sought after like Tickle Me Elmos at Christmas back in the day.
Harrison’s ADP hovered around WR20 in drafts conducted through mid-July. Since then, hot and heavy demand has skyrocketed his perceived value into the WR top 10. People have lost their damn minds.
Similar to Nabers, Harrison has the foundation to deliver instant results. He obviously owns the pedigree, tight routes and general talents to punish would-be defenders. Last season at THE Ohio State, he ranked top 15 in total deep yards (598) and total contested catches (13). Overall, he posted a 102 or higher passer rating on five different routes.
Given his ideal size (6-foot-4, 205 pounds) and separation skills, Harrison is sure to be a menace in man coverage. But keep in mind that Kyler Murray finished QB31 in adjusted completion last year.
A top-20 WR? Buyable. A top-10 WR? Very doubtful. Give me Chris Olave, Drake London or D.J. Moore instead at a cheaper ADP.
4. Christian McCaffrey, 49ers, RB (ADP: 1.33, RB1)
Put down the tequila, Evans. It’s 7:36 a.m. for the love of the fantasy gods. Yes, this imbecile never bats remotely close to .500 on prognostications — see my betting spreadsheet — but consensus No. 1 overall fantasy picks rarely meet sky-high expectations.
McCaffrey’s red-zone efficiency was positively absurd last season, and that suggests unsustainability. Mr. All-Around was No. 1 in total evaded tackles (77), target share (19.3%) and expected fantasy points per game (20.7). His 2,023 combined yards and 21 total touchdowns were practically pornographic. However, you’re buying Amazon stock at its peak.
His recent calf strain, which is expected to keep him sidelined for the entire preseason, only increases the in-the-red downside. The last I checked, soft-tissue injuries steadily wreak havoc. Further raining on CMC’s parade, San Francisco has the seventh-hardest projected fantasy strength of schedule for RBs.
This punchable face is preparing for an entire carton of eggs, but Bijan Robinson outperforms him. Bartender, pour me another.
5. Anthony Richardson, Colts, QB (ADP: 60.02, QB6)
Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott and Jordan Love immediately follow the Colts passer in the current ADP pecking order. All possess strong draft-over-Richardson arguments. The upside is entirely graspable.
Before an AC sprain derailed his rookie year after four games, Richardson oozed QB1 potential. Twice, against the Jaguars and the Rams, he finished with 21-plus fantasy points. A rhinoceros on the ground, he powered his way to 136 yards and four TDs in his four contests. His paltry 144.3 passing yards per game and three TD tosses were merely icing on the cake. Still, the curtailed season cost him invaluable developmental time.
Richardson is a big-armed, though very raw, quarterback. Most alarmingly, he may want to protect himself. If that happens, 500 ground yards may be his ceiling.
Head coach Shane Steichen isn’t burying Richardson the runner, but the second-year QB’s overall line could be similar to what Jayden Daniels compiles. The average ADP difference between the two SEC products since August 1 is 38.71. Managers are saddling up the passing pony too early in Round 5.