The 2024 college football season kicks off Saturday, August 24. Nate Jacobson and Ben Wittenstein preview the major conferences with their predictions and best bets.
Which team is the best bet to go OVER its regular-season win total?
Nate’s pick — SMU OVER 8 wins (-135, DraftKings)
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If you’re reading your first college football preview of the year, you might be confused by SMU being in the ACC. Well, that’s because the Mustangs join former Pac-12 members California and Stanford in a conference that has a lot of questions about its future with ACC powerhouses Florida State and Clemson looking for a way out.
Regardless of what happens with the ACC, SMU is set up to have success this season and beyond with the resources at their disposal in Dallas. The Mustangs’ win total for 2024 has been going up after opening at 7.5 early in the offseason, and it’s still worth a bet at over 8.
The schedule sets up well for the former AAC program as it gets Nevada, Houston Christian and BYU in non-conference. SMU has a tough three-game stretch after a bye week with home games against TCU and Florida State before a road trip to Louisville, but the second half of the schedule should have the Mustangs as a significant favorite in each game when they face most of the bottom-rated ACC teams.
SMU also has three bye weeks because its game against Nevada will be played in Week 0, so the Mustangs should be rested for life in a new conference. I’m also going to look to bet on SMU in individual games with quarterback Preston Stone back under center from a team that won the AAC last year.
Ben’s pick — North Carolina State OVER 8.5 wins (-130, BetMGM)
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Boy, I’m really putting my chips in with the Wolfpack, aren’t I? As I mentioned in our ACC champion picks, I think this could be the year Dave Doeren gets his coveted 10-win season. It’s certainly going to take some things going NC State’s way, but the schedule is favorable.
The Wolfpack don’t leave the Carolinas until Week 8, and they leave North Carolina just once in that two-month span to play Clemson. The minimal travel early on should help NC State play its best without the worry of travel issues.
Two games are concerning, though — Tennessee and Clemson. Currently, the Vols are a 4.5-point favorite on a neutral field in Charlotte. That game could go either way. I also can see the same thing against Clemson, which could be much improved if QB Cade Klubnik takes a leap. However, NC State should be able to match any offensive firepower it faces with the addition of transfer Grayson McCall.
Most likely, the Wolfpack will lose both games against Tennessee and Clemson. NC State could afford one more loss, but that defeat could come in the last week of the season to UNC or possibly after a long flight to face Cal in Berkeley. Still, I find it hard to see four losses.
This Wolfpack team is much improved offensively from an already good nine-win team last year, with only a slight drop on defense. Combine that with an easier schedule, and I love this NC State team to hit at least nine wins once again.
Which team is the best bet to go UNDER its regular-season win total?
Nate’s pick — North Carolina UNDER 7.5 wins (+100, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
For the last five seasons, Mack Brown’s Tar Heels have had either Sam Howell or Drake Maye at QB. Despite having NFL talent at the most important position and a general uptick in recruiting, UNC has failed to greatly exceed expectations Brown’s second stint in Chapel Hill. The most regular-season games he’s won since his return is nine in 2022 when Maye was a first-year starter.
Even with Maye — the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft — North Carolina lost four of its last six games in 2023 to finish 8-4 and go under a regular-season win total of 8.5. Now, the Tar Heels are priced down to 7.5, but they don’t have a QB on their roster who projects to be an NFL player. It appears Texas A&M transfer Max Johnson will get the first chance to start, but I was never impressed with him during his time in College Station.
North Carolina does have a favorable ACC schedule where it avoids Clemson, Miami, Louisville, SMU and Virginia Tech, but the team’s quality is down with the drop-off at the QB position. The Tar Heels also have a tough non-conference game on Thursday night of Week 1 against Minnesota. I’m likely going to bet on the Golden Gophers in that contest.
UNC is a sell for me, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tar Heels hire a new coach after the season.
Ben’s pick — Miami UNDER 9 wins (+105, DraftKings)
- DraftKings offer: Bet $5 and get $150 in Bonus Bets
If you’re The Rock, please stop reading. For everyone else, Miami cannot be trusted. I know the Hurricanes have a new QB in Cam Ward and lots of returning players, but there’s something about a Mario Cristobal squad that I inherently cannot trust.
From November 1 to January 1, Miami won one game. One! And it was against Boston College. This was a team that started out hot with four wins in a row and then ended up losing to Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl.
The disaster of a season started with Cristobal’s infamous coaching error when he chose not to kneel against Georgia Tech. And that was just the most-viewed mistake. There were plenty of other blunders. Cristobal will likely make similar bad decisions this year against a tough schedule.
The Hurricanes start out on the road against a Florida team that’s hungry for some early wins. They begin October by traveling across the country to play Cal and staying on the road to take on a tough Louisville team. Two of their last three games will be away from Hard Rock Stadium.
Miami will likely have losses against Florida, Louisville and Florida State and possibly in its finale against a Syracuse team that’s had all season to develop. Also, if history is our guide, the Hurricanes will likely drop one or even two games they should have easily won. So I’m more than happy to take the under here.