The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Atlanta Falcons.
Fantasy value — Kyle Pitts, TE (ADP: 70.06, TE6)
The pain, the misery, the wasted talent. Pitts has been woefully underutilized in his three-year NFL career. His six total touchdowns are nothing short of dumbfounding. Fantasy managers who’ve repeatedly gone back to the well with the tight end have filled empty buckets with endless tears. However, with a competent veteran passer under center in Kirk Cousins, those who vowed “never again” are sure to be enticed six beers in on draft day.
Give in to temptation.
Admittedly, Pitts is appropriately valued in the TE market, but for those that exercise patience, he’s a slightly discounted overall option in early drafts.
Last season with Atlanta’s carousel of crap at QB, Pitts’ surface numbers suffered (53-667-3). However, analyzing the advanced profile under a microscope, he excelled in several key areas. Among qualifying TEs, he set the pace in total air yards (1012), aDot (11.1) and accumulated deep targets (11). He also finished top-10 in contested catch rate and yards per reception (12.6).
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Yes, the offensive scheme is different, but the sea change should finally unlock Pitt’s potential. His usage in the slot and outside is expected to remain somewhat the same under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, but the massive QB upgrade can’t be ignored. Pitts has all the skills imaginable to challenge Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta for top TE honors.
The unrealized air yards — Pitts was No. 1 in the category last year — are about to be fully realized. When you consider the Falcons’ 11th-easiest projected fantasy schedule, Cousins’ steady top-five accuracy returns and Atlanta’s overly forgiving defense, the well waters could finally be refreshing.
Prop pick — Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Player of the Year (+2000, DraftKings)
- DraftKings offer: Bet $5 and get $150 in Bonus Bets
Hey, Coach Robinson, GTFO with your recent hyperbole on Tyler Allgeier. Frustrated fantasy fanatics will not tolerate such nonsense after Bijan’s blatant misuse last season. Seriously, kick rocks.
Is the Allgeier hype pure poppycock? It’s a complete unknown, but gamers should have faith in Bijan delivering dynamite numbers this year.
Last season as a rookie in Arthur Smith’s antiquated system, Robinson occasionally detonated. On only 52.5% of the team’s opportunity share, he finished inside the RB top 10 in total evaded tackles (63), yards created (1041) and yards per reception (8.4). His RB14 standing in YAC per attempt (3.10) was also nothing to scoff at. Suffice it to say, his baseline talents are tremendous.
Atlanta’s projected middle-of-the-pack offensive line dampens the mood slightly, but if Robinson’s opportunity share lands above 70%, his resulting numbers should be spectacular. Keep in mind the Dirty Birds own the fourth-easiest schedule for fantasy RBs.
Head coach Raheem Morris has repeatedly said this summer he wants to give Bijan the rock as much as humanly possible. Despite his OC’s recent declarations about Allgeier, I’m siding with the head honcho. If everything comes together, Robinson will be the most treasured player in fantasy and reality. Roughly 1500-1700 total yards and 12-15 combined touchdowns are totally buyable. Sprinkle him taking home OROY.
Team lean — Falcons OVER 9.5 wins (-140, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
Quite stunningly, Atlanta is only -120 to win the AFC South. Frankly, the juice should be in the -150 to -200 range.
The Falcons have the easiest projected schedule in the league. Unsurprisingly, ESPN’s Mike Clay gives them a 53% or greater win probability in 13 games. Even if they bat .500 in expected close-call matchups — vs. Steelers, vs. Saints, vs. Seahawks, at Buccaneers, at Saints — 10 total victories should be secured.
The defense is a concern, but if Cousins shows no ill effects from last year’s Achilles injury, Atlanta should routinely gash the competition offensively. In other words, I’m banking on the Falcons out-blasting opponents in what could be several shootouts.