The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Fantasy value — Chris Godwin, WR (ADP: 86.36, WR36)
Build an altar and light candles for the divine deity of catches. Expected to slide back into more of a slot role, Godwin is a discount, back-end WR3 in 12-team leagues — especially in formats that reward receptions.
Under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, the sure-handed veteran is slated to undertake the Cooper Kupp role in a Rams-influenced offense. Last year, Godwin played a career-low 32.1% of his snaps in the slot. A heavy return to that position could score backers a sizable jackpot.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
In 2022, Godwin lined up in the slot for over 57% of his snaps, hauling in 104 receptions in 15 games. Granted, Tom Brady was throwing him the ball and is now concentrating on twentysomething runway models instead of footballs. Tampa Bay’s current passer, Baker Mayfield, posted a commendable 100.2 passer rating targeting Godwin last season.
Still only 28 years young, the crafty wide receiver — who totaled the fifth-most route wins among all WRs and the sixth-most yards after catch in 2023, according to PlayerProfiler — could return to a top-20 fantasy level. The Buccaneers’ projected leaky defense only enhances the chances.
Final Hail Mary chuck: Godwin totals roughly 90-95 catches, 1000-1050 yards and 4-6 touchdowns. Go the extra buck.
Prop pick — Mike Evans UNDER 8.5 receiving touchdowns (-130, DraftKings)
- DraftKings offer: Bet $5 and get $150 in Bonus Bets
At the annual Evans family gathering, my cousin is sure to have a beef with this selection, but the reasons are entirely justifiable.
Arguably the most steady producer at the position ever, Evans is no spring chicken at a soon-to-be 31 years old. Eventually, undefeated Father Time will dig his wrinkly claws into the consistency king, although last season’s advanced data suggests otherwise.
Last year, Evans finished top-15 in total air yards, aDOT (14.1), total route wins, yards per reception (15.9) and red-zone targets (17). He’s unlikely to fall off a cliff, but his TD output could resemble more 2022 (6) than 2023 (13).
Entering the season, Tampa has the 11th-hardest projected strength of schedule for fantasy wide receivers. Factoring in Mayfield’s erratic red-zone returns in 2023 — he finished QB20 in red-zone completion percentage — and Evans’ age, banking on eight touchdowns feels appropriate.
Yep, Captain Hook could turn on a fellow Buc. Yarrr!
Team lean — Buccaneers UNDER 8.5 wins (-140, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
Playing in the NFC South has its perks. As witnessed in most recent seasons, the division is wide open. The Bucs, despite roster flaws, are bound to compete.
With Tampa’s 12th-easiest strength of schedule, most would windmill-dunk the over on the above total. However, ESPN’s Mike Clay gives the Fightin’ Rachaad Whites a 50% or greater win probability in only six contests.
Given the Buccaneers’ likely forgiving defense, suspect offensive line and aging roster on offense, this constantly wrong bettor is forecasting 7-8 wins.