The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Jacksonville Jaguars.
Fantasy value — Brian Thomas Jr., WR (ADP: 124.71, WR47)
He might have one of the most common names in the known universe, but the 2024 No. 23 overall pick from LSU isn’t likely to post vanilla numbers in his inaugural campaign.
Thomas showed dramatic footwork and route running improvements during his three years in Baton Rouge. A big-bodied target at 6-foot-3, he possesses the verticality (38.5-inch jump) and long speed (4.33 seconds in the 40) needed to win in mano y mano situations.
With Jayden Daniels as his QB, Thomas thrived last season in crossing, go and post routes, totaling a 116.1 or greater WR rating in each, according to Pro Football Focus. Working in concert with Daniels' tremendous downfield arm, the wideout also finished No. 2 in total deep yards (670) among all FBS wide receivers.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Some scouts have questioned whether Thomas can steadily beat press coverage since he rarely encountered it in college. His performance in the area is undoubtedly something to monitor during the preseason. If he does showcase the required physicality, 800-900 yards are within reach.
Jacksonville has the 12th-hardest strength of schedule for fantasy WRs, but Trevor Lawrence’s proven deep-ball touch could have Thomas flirting with WR3 territory in 12-team leagues. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are likely to lead the team in targets, but 100-110 looks are still possible for the rookie.
Bottom line: Draft Thomas in the later rounds and save him for a rainy day.
Prop pick — Trevor Lawrence UNDER 22.5 passing touchdowns (+115, DraftKings)
- DraftKings offer: Bet $5 and get $150 in Bonus Bets
The modern-day Blond Bomber hasn’t exactly lived up to his top-pick billing. During his three years in the league, he’s eclipsed 22 touchdowns only once. Some underlying data imply numeric advancements this season. However, other metrics suggest very much otherwise. I’m siding with the latter.
In 2023, Lawrence displayed excellent touch on passes beyond 20 yards, but his No. 16 ranking in red-zone completion percentage, No. 4 standing in interceptable passes and No. 19 placement in catchable pass rate stained the profile. Really, he’s an un-spicy bowl of chili. One that’s filling, sure, but not a passer who’s bound to post fiery numbers.
Throw in Jacksonville’s third-hardest slate for fantasy QBs along with a projected top-10 defense, and 20-22 touchdowns are most believable, especially when weighing the Jags’ below-average offensive line.
Team lean — Jaguars UNDER 8.5 wins (-145, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
Shad Khan’s kitties will earn their Friskies on occasion, but securing nine wins is a little rich. O-line concerns and a likely middle-of-the-pack offense diminish this bettor’s confidence.
Jacksonville’s 17th-easiest SOS also suggests few opponents are pushovers. ESPN’s Mike Clay only gives the Jaguars a 55% or greater win probability in six games. That means in their projected four coin-flip matchups — at Bears, vs. Packers, vs. Texans and vs. Colts — they must go 3-1.
It’s possible, but so are the chances of this balding dome suddenly growing hair. And, no, I’m not looking to go full Urlacher.