As expected, the Wimbledon women’s field has been completely unpredictable. No clear-cut favorite existed going into the tournament, and the forecast got even more cloudy after odds-on pick Aryna Sabalenka withdrew due to a shoulder injury.
The upset-filled fortnight concludes with Saturday’s final between 31st-seeded Barbora Krejcikova against seventh-seeded Jasmine Paolini. Last year, both suffered early round defeats at Wimbledon. This year at the All England Club, both scored stunning semifinal comeback wins after dropping the first set.
The two players have had more Grand Slam success on the red clay at Roland Garros — Krejcikova won the 2021 French Open title; Paolini reached this year’s final — but their extraordinary Wimbledon runs should make for a fascinating matchup.
The pick — OVER 22.5 total games (-110, DraftKings)
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Krejcikova is a -145 favorite over Paolini, who’s a +115 underdog. Krejcikova has the power, first serve and net play to win her second Grand Slam singles title. Don’t discount Paolini, though. The diminutive Italian has the grit — but most importantly the court coverage — to run down balls and extend rallies.
With the way this Wimbledon has gone, I’m staying away from the moneyline wagers. The lone certainty is that the final will be competitive. So I’m investing in the total games props and going with the over on the 22.5 total. It would be a surprise if the match doesn’t reach a third set.
If you’re looking for plus-money odds, go with the over on the 2.5 sets total (+105).
Tennis record: 4-5, -1.69 units