Euro 2024 has been defined by close matches, late goals and young players emerging on one of the biggest stages in world soccer. The tournament is down from 24 teams to eight quarterfinalists that will play Friday and Saturday across Germany.
Here are my preview and pick for Saturday’s quarterfinal between the Netherlands and Turkey in Berlin.
The pick — Netherlands to win and OVER 1.5 combined goals (-110, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
It’s a bit of a surprise to see Turkey still playing at this stage of the tournament. In Group F, they defeated Georgia 3-1, lost to Portugal 3-0 and prevailed 2-1 on last-gasp winner against Czechia, who played the final 70 minutes down a man because of a 20th-minute red card.
Turkey came out flying against Austria in their round-of-16 match, scoring in the first minute off a corner kick and then adding to their lead off a corner kick in the 59th minute. The Turks held off an Austrian barrage, needing goalkeeper Mert Gunok’s save of the tournament in the final seconds to preserve a 2-1 victory.
Austria’s last minute header was worth 0.94(xGOT).
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) July 2, 2024
In other words, a goalkeeper would only be expected to save the effort 6% of the time. pic.twitter.com/9DL3nLTIYQ
While my view of Turkey might be negative, they have a future star in 19-year-old Arda Guler and get a big boost for this match from captain Hakan Calhanoglu, who returns after serving a suspension against Austria. They also might have a hidden home-crowd advantage in Berlin, which has the largest Turkish population of any city in Germany.
I can see goals in this quarterfinal based on how both sides have performed so far, and I want to back the Netherlands in some way. The Dutch are favorites to win in regulation at -160, which doesn’t offer much value.
But you can bet on a Netherlands victory with the over on 1.5 combined goals, and that is good enough for me. To win the wager, I just need the Oranje to win by any score other than 1-0, and that is reasonable given what I believe the game state will look like.