The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Cleveland Browns.
Fantasy value — Nick Chubb, RB (ADP: 138.29, RB34)
When it comes to any player coming off a major knee injury — especially at a body-taxing position — the general rule of thumb is to avoid him at all costs. However, Chubb, arguably the best pure runner in the game, is very much the exception.
The prognosis for Cleveland’s steamroller is somewhat rosy. Updates have been sporadic, but in early May, Browns general manager Andrew Berry said the organization’s prized running back is “progressing nicely.”
Mid-September will mark the one-year anniversary of Chubb’s catastrophic setback suffered against the Steelers. Engaged in running activities since April and reportedly aggressive in his rehab, the 28-year-old still faces a long comeback trail. This 101-minded dolt is no M.D., but if Chubb returns before Cleveland's Week 10 bye, consider it a remarkable recovery.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
When at full strength, Chubb is without question a top-five fantasy RB. He’s a brutalizing downhill runner who racks the YAC (RB8 in YAC/attempt in 2022) and misses tackles (RB2 in ’22). Working behind a defender-displacing offensive line and operating in a fairly conservative Kevin Stefanski system (42.80 run percentage in ‘23), the Browns’ offensive centerpiece should pick up where he left off.
Much is to be determined as the summer heat drags on, but draft, stash and save Chubb for the late-season stretch. Available in the tier of Tyjae Spears, Brian Robinson and Trey Benson, he’s a highly affordable target after Round 10 in 12-team leagues.
The Chubb club, even at 75% functionality, could be bangin' during December’s money-making weeks. Keep in mind that Cleveland has the eighth-easiest projected strength of schedule for fantasy RBs in Weeks 15 through 17.
Prop pick — David Njoku OVER 4.5 receiving touchdowns (-130, Caesars)
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The forecast in the greater Cleveland metro area calls for semi-frequent Njoku scoring stomps. The premier plus-sized target, who slashed his best fantasy line of his seven-year career in 2023 (123-81-882-6), is likely to repeat last season’s feats — especially in touchdowns.
Last year, Njoku ranked No. 3 in total red-zone targets, enticing 17 looks from Deshaun Watson, Joe Flacco (who’s now backing up Colts QB Anthony Richardson) and the Browns’ three other suspect passers. Yes, in his six games played, the incumbent Watson finished a disappointing QB27 in red-zone accuracy, but the big-bodied TE is still likely to catch at least five TDs in consecutive seasons. Most alluring is that Cleveland has the easiest projected fantasy strength of schedule for tight ends, according to FFToolbox.
Team lean — Browns OVER 8.5 wins (-138, FanDuel)
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Until Chubb receives the thumbs up, Stefanski will lean on the quality 1-2 punch of Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman to balance the scheme and move the chains. Jerry Jeudy’s arrival also upgrades a receivers room featuring sure-fire WR1 Amari Cooper and Njoku.
Factor in possibly the NFL's best overall defense and an elite offensive line, and nine wins is highly doable. Yes, the Browns have the 10th-hardest projected strength of schedule, but ESPN’s Mike Clay gives them a 53% or greater win probability to win a dozen games. In the end, Cleveland will staunchly compete with Baltimore for the AFC North title.