Being the well-known horse rider that I am, I’m excited to get back in the saddle (a phrase we equestrians often use) for a large slate of WNBA games after a short Commissioner’s Cup break.
With a wide variety of bets to choose from, I have some system spots that must be hit and a team total that I must bet the under on.
Let’s ride!
Dallas Wings +10 vs. Minnesota Lynx (-110, DraftKings)
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I’m hitting two spots where I fade a team fresh off a big win. This is the first one.
The Lynx are on a high after a Commissioner's Cup victory over the New York Liberty, one of the league’s best teams, but Minnesota is also playing its fourth game in the last 10 days. On the other hand, the Wings haven’t played since Sunday. This is a great spot to fade the Lynx off an emotional victory in which four of their five starters played 32+ minutes and they fought their way back from a 10-point deficit.
Now, Minnesota is back on the road, presumably with tired legs, to face a rested Dallas squad that’s desperate for its first win since May 26. I’ll back the Wings to cover a double-digit spread.
Indiana Fever team total UNDER 79.5 at Seattle Storm (+100, DraftKings)
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I feel like whenever I make a Fever bet this season it has been a negative one. I’m sorry, but I simply cannot stop picking on them.
To their credit, they were on a tear in their last four games before unexpectedly losing 88-87 to the Sky last Sunday. Now, Indiana faces a cross-country trip to take on the league’s third-ranked defense.
No one is saying the Fever can’t score — they can — but whenever Indiana faces a top-five defensive team, its offense shrinks faster than George Costanza when he’s in a pool.
Against teams with top-five defensive ratings, the Fever average just 78.3 points per game. That’s a significant drop from their 89.6-point average over their last five matchups, mostly against weaker defenses.
Now, after a big game in Chicago seen by over 2.3 million people on TV, Indiana takes a long trip to Seattle to face a Storm team that’s giving up 72.8 points per game at home. The offensive shrinkage will be strong for the Fever against one of the league’s best defenses.
Las Vegas Aces -9.5 at Chicago Sky (-110, FanDuel)
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I know you’ve been eagerly awaiting the next System Play of the Day, so buckle up — it’s here: I’m fading the Sky hot off their win against Indiana.
Chicago was on life support midway through the fourth quarter against the Fever. Without some dismal defensive lapses and rookie mistakes, the Sky would've lost.
Now they face an Aces team that ranks fifth in net rating and second in offensive rating and features the WNBA’s leading scorer in A’ja Wilson (27.8 points per game). As far as tests go, this is like taking the SAT after getting one night to cram.
Chicago’s defense has faltered recently with a 103.2 defensive rating over its last five games, worse than its overall defensive rating of 99.6. Consistency hasn’t been the Sky’s strong suit either, as they have managed back-to-back victories only twice this year.
Meanwhile, Las Vegas has dominated Chicago, winning by double digits in four of the teams’ last five encounters. I expect that to continue after Thursday.
WNBA season record: 4-7, -3.50 units