It all comes down to this — the NBA Finals. How will the league’s annual crescendo hit? Brad Evans attempts to slam dunk the sportsbooks on a same game parlay for Game 3. Fade or follow — that’s up to you!
The pick — SGP: Mavericks +6.5 alt spread, Luka Doncic 3+ threes, Daniel Gafford 7+ points (+102, DraftKings)
- DraftKings offer: Bet $5 and get $150 in Bonus Bets instantly
Undeniably, the NBA playoffs have blasted this chilly gambler’s bankroll. No matter the type of wager — spread, total, single player prop or SGP — the dollars destruction is reminiscent of wrecked death traps at a demolition derby. Still, for strange and sadistic reasons, I continue to fire. No stop. No quit. Embrace the failure.
My kids are so junior college bound.
With the Mavericks in full desperation mode after falling into a 0-2 series hole, how will they respond while being backed by the 20,000 strong inside American Airlines Center? Here’s a breakdown of my Game 3 SGP legs.
Mavericks +6.5 alt spread. Outside of its Game 1 debacles this postseason, Dallas has played consistent competitive basketball. On the +6.5 alt line, it has covered in 15 of 19 playoff games. Backdooring the standard +7.5 in Game 2, the favored Mavs (-1.5) should remain in Game 3 to the bitter end, if not outright take it. Keep the brooms in the closet. It’s unlikely a sweep occurs.
Luka Doncic 3+ threes. Prior to Game 2’s tipoff, Doncic resembled a shrimp cocktail on ice. Despite his physical restrictions, the bandaged superstar thawed out quickly enough to record his seventh triple-double of the playoffs. Including Monday’s effort, he has splashed three or more triples in nine straight games. In the postseason, he’s averaged 9.8 three attempts and shot 34.8% from distance. The Celtics have only surrendered 10.8 three-point makes in the playoffs, but Luka’s sheer volume and his recent torrid streak suggest this leg won’t buckle. Pass the cocktail sauce.
Daniel Gafford 7+ points. The lengthy 6-foot-10 man in the middle is a textbook example of a high-percentage converter. Many of Gafford’s attempts have come at or near the rim. As a result, he’s shooting a blistering 75.0% from the floor in the Finals, and on his 5.9 attempts per game in the playoffs, he’s tallied a 62.8 FG%. Reaching at least seven points in 14 of his last 15 games, he should coast to the lucky number needed. Need more convincing? Our MIT-educated friends at RITHMM have him projected for 10.0 points, giving Gafford a 78.5% win probability of cashing the OVER on his standard 8.5 points line.
NBA postseason record: 12-26, -12.23 units (Yes, I'm cursed!)