The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Kansas City Chiefs.
Fantasy value — Isiah Pacheco, RB (ADP: 42.00, RB13)
It’s rather befuddling. A talented three-down power back with a well-defined red-zone role who operates behind an upper-echelon offensive line and plays alongside a generational quarterback is being drafted outside the position’s top 10. Really, it’s downright criminal.
Similar to last year, “The Punisher” remains one of the virtual game’s greatest values. His violent downhill running style, adept hands and irrefutable RB1 role in arguably the game’s best offense should have fantasy managers clamoring to draft him.
Last season on 72.4% of the opportunity share, Pacheco finished RB15 in 0.5 PPR despite missing three games with a sprained shoulder. He caught 44 passes and posted the No. 2 catch rate (89.9%) among qualifying RBs. As a runner, his RB12 finish in missed tackles forced (47) and RB18 ranking in yards created per touch perked ears. Also, he finished RB7 in total red-zone touches (50).
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
The punishment Pacheco endures does raise injury concerns, but even if he plays 75% of the regular season, another top-15 finish is likely. If he somehow stays upright the entire year, a top-five campaign is achievable.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire once again will spell him sporadically, but Pacheco totaling 1300 combined yards with double-digit TDs is buyable. Even more convincing, he has the seventh-easiest schedule for a RB, according to Fantasy Nerds.
Talent, opportunity, team — go the extra buck, or three.
Prop pick — Patrick Mahomes UNDER 4350.5 passing yards (-110, DraftKings)
Fading the world’s most talented passer is an exercise that’s sure to leave an entire carton of eggs on this gambler’s face. However, there are rational reasons.
For starters, the number at DraftKings is anywhere from 110-175 yards higher compared to other ‘books. For those who are always arguing closing-line value, this is your Exhibit A.
Yes, Mahomes has blown past the above number in four of six seasons as a full-time starter. When you’re in a high-volume offense (37.3 attempts per game in 2023), possess a pinpoint-accurate all-levels arm (No. 1 in true completion percentage in ’23) and are surrounded by explosive weapons, banner production in passing yards is widely expected. Still, Travis Kelce isn’t getting any younger, Rashee Rice is immersed in hot water and speedster Xavier Worthy is a rookie who makes it rain $1 bills.
Hollywood Brown’s arrival does calm some uneasiness, but Mahomes averaging around or just below 260 passing yards per game in consecutive seasons isn’t unthinkable — especially when your fantasy QB strength of schedule is projected as the fourth-hardest in the league.
My face is ready. Bring on the yolks.
Team lean — Chiefs OVER 11.5 wins (-110, DraftKings)
According to ESPN’s Mike Clay, Kansas City has a 54% win probability or higher to win 14 games this season. Roster turnover, injuries and suspensions are always influential, but 12 victories are attainable for a team featuring the NFL’s top offense.
Remember: The Chiefs have the 10th-easiest projected schedule in the league. Surely, Andy Reid is grateful for the ineptitude of the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders — and nuggies.