One of the best matches at this year’s French Open took place in the second round between current world No. 1 Iga Swiatek and former world No. 1 Naomi Osaka. Rarely does an early round meeting at a major tournament produce such high-quality tennis, but that’s what happens when two four-time Grand Slam winners are drawn together.
Swiatek survived a riveting first-set tiebreaker, got steamrolled in the second and then held off Osaka’s upset bid in the third to advance with a highly entertaining 7-6 (7-1), 1-6, 7-5 victory. Osaka’s best tennis in quite some time put unexpected stress on the defending French Open champion.
That was the last time Swiatek has been pressured. She’s only lost eight games since, extending her French Open winning streak to 19 matches. The No. 1 seed is on track for a third-straight title at Roland Garros.
American Coco Gauff has had a wonderful tournament, but her run will likely end Thursday against Swiatek in the semifinals. Gauff has lost 10 of their 11 career matches, claiming her lone victory last August in Cincinnati. Swiatek has won all four meetings on clay, including a 6-1, 6-3 victory in the 2022 French Open final and a 6-4, 6-3 triumph in the Italian Open two weeks ago.
Every sportsbook lists Swiatek as the prohibitive favorite — as high as -800 at BetMGM. The following wager figures to be the most rewarding.
The pick — Set betting: Iga Swiatek 2-0 vs. Coco Gauff (-240, FanDuel)
- FanDuel offers: Bet $5 and get $150 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins
Gauff has never taken a set off Swiatek on clay. She’s only been able to force a first-set tiebreaker, which happened in their first-ever meeting three years ago in Rome. Swiatek has won all four clay encounters in straight sets, including twice at Roland Garros.
The modern-day queen of clay seems to be getting stronger as she nears a fourth French Open crown. The third-seeded Gauff is in her third consecutive Grand Slam semifinal, but she needed a three-set comeback victory against eighth-seeded Ons Jabeur to get there. It will take an epic effort by Gauff to upset Swiatek on her favorite surface.
For a sensible plus-money odds play, I recommend the total games prop of under 18.5 games (+100, BetMGM and DraftKings). It’s a bigger dice roll than the under on 20.5 games (-190, BetMGM), but all signs point to a dominant Swiatek performance. In addition to the 2022 French Open final, Swiatek defeated Gauff 6-4, 6-2 in last year’s quarterfinals.
Tennis record: 1-0, +1.30 units