The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Washington Commanders.
Fantasy value — Brian Robinson Jr., RB (ADP: 141.44, RB34)
Being matched with a dual-threat QB behind a decent offensive line is a pairing on par with a top-shelf anejo served alongside a plate of delicious tacos. MAS TEQUILA!
Gamers will sprint to the podium to enthusiastically announce drafting Austin Ekeler, but the younger and hard-running bruiser is bar none the better value.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Robinson’s advanced numbers profile from last year is impressive. On 60.9% of the opportunity share, he finished top-15 among qualifying RBs in fantasy points per opportunity (0.90), yards per touch (5.1) and yards created per touch (4.11). His RB22 standings in YAC per attempt (2.93) and total missed tackles forced (37) also deserve praise.
And don’t for a minute believe everything was ground-based. Robinson showed he can be an impactful three-down back. In 2023, he set the pace in yards per catch among RBs and was top-seven in yards per route run and catch percentage (83.7%). Still only 25 years old, the dude is trending in a completely different direction compared to his RB cohort.
Yes, Washington’s fifth-toughest RB schedule somewhat extinguishes the hype, but Robinson, at a very affordable ADP, is a bench back this gamer will go the extra mile to acquire. Roughly 1100 yards and 5-7 TDs are likely.
Prop pick — Jayden Daniels OVER 500.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
Shhh! The oddsmaker who set this line is clearly asleep at the wheel. Tiptoe and whisper in his presence. We don’t want the value to disappear.
Pluck the low-hanging fruit. At a standard juice, the above number feels almost too good to be true. Daniels’ wheels are undeniably dynamic. As displayed repeatedly in Baton Rouge last season, the Heisman Trophy winner ran for an absurd 1,134 yards in 12 games. Even before taking a meaningful snap in the NFL, it’s arguable he’s as talented, if not better, sprinting in the open field than electric runners Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Justin Fields.
Daniels’ slender frame raises concern, but behind a questionable Commanders line, many unscripted runs are bound to occur. Approximately 600-700 ground yards this fall is realistic if he can avoid the trainer’s table. There’s a reason why this huevos-y prognosticator ranked him QB8 for fantasy purposes.
Team lean — Commanders UNDER 6.5 wins (-120, BetMGM)
ESPN’s Mike Clay gives Dan Quinn’s club a 46% or better chance to win only three games. Yikes.
Daniels is a bit of a wild card, but his multidimensionality and howitzer arm are sensational attributes. If everything clicks, the Commanders could overachieve offensively.
The pieces are in place with the backfield stable, suitable WRs (highlighted by Terry McLaurin) and Daniels. However, Washington’s projected bottom-10 defense likely means scoring outbursts will be needed. Even with the 11th-easiest schedule, this team triumphs, at most, in five or six games.