Break out the Walkman, put on some Nirvana and make a call at the nearest pay phone because we’re going back to the 1990s, baby! It’s the Knicks-Pacers playoff rivalry, and while there will be some things reminiscent of those classic ‘90s bouts, the scoring won’t be one of them.
Game 1 pick — Pacers team total OVER 105.5 (-114, FanDuel) | FanDuels offers
That’s right: We’re taking the over on the Pacers team total because it’s just so damn low.
I know the Knicks are a good defensive team, but people have forgotten how much of a powerhouse Indiana can be offensively. The Pacers are the most efficient offense in the league behind Boston, and they averaged THE MOST points per game during the regular season at 123.3. In fact, out of the 82 games, they scored lower than this number only eight times. That’s a 90% hit rate.
As for the New York defense, it has given up an average of 108.2 points in the playoffs thus far, which is above this number.
The Knicks also play at a top-10 pace and take more than 40 three-pointers a game in the playoffs. You read that correctly — FORTY threes.
New York will have plenty of chances to score points, so let’s put our money behind the numbers and ride the team total over.
Series prop — Pacers series spread +1.5 (+115, BetMGM) | BetMGM offers
The narrative, public and sportsbooks are all loving what the Knicks are putting down right now. Let’s fade that.
Whether it’s because the team wasn’t on national TV a lot or because it’s based in Indianapolis, the Pacers have been overlooked. They’re fighters. And come playoff time, I love backing fighters.
In fact, only two teams in the entire league have a positive win record when they’re underdogs, and Indiana is one of them at 52.5%. I’m not counting out a team that is undervalued like that AND has an offense whose efficiency is comparable to the Celtics.
If I can get that kind of squad as a series underdog at plus money? I’m jumping all over that one.
Series pick — Knicks to win 4-3 (+340, BetMGM) | BetMGM offers
If you’re stunned that after all of this I’m still picking New York to win the series, I don’t blame you. I’m high on the Pacers and think they’ll put up more than a good fight. However, the series going the distance means one thing: a winner-take-all Game 7 at Madison Square Garden.
We should be so lucky to live at the same time as an MSG Game 7.
And if/when that happens, all I can say is good luck to Indiana. The Pacers can have a great series, shooting the ball well and playing great defense, but a Game 7 at Basketball Mecca is a difficult task to overcome.
This Eastern Conference semifinal is going to be a dogfight, and if it comes down to a decisive seventh game, which I think it will, the home team is taking it.
NBA postseason record: 3-1, +1.74 units