Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — Nevada -1 vs. Dayton (-110, MGM)
The Mountain West revenge tour is already underway. In a game played with peach baskets and medicine balls, Virginia scored a disease-ridden 14 points in the first half. Most horrifically, the Cavaliers didn’t register a single point for 51 minutes of real time. Puke.
Congrats on the sweat-free cash, UNDER bettors. And kudos to Colorado State for the relatively uncontested 67-42 First Four victory Tuesday in the NCAA Tournament.
In opening-round action on Thursday, the MWC drives to Salt Lake City. The roadies have the stage set. The instrument techs are already busy. And the group’s opulent bus, with slightly hungover and frizzy-haired passengers aboard, just pulled into the lot.
The thousands in attendance at the Delta Center are about to get rocked by an act determined to put some damn respect on its league’s name.
[ NCAA Tournament bracket: Analytical picks | 'Gut' picks ]
For Nevada to headbang, it must continue to wail on the whammy bar offensively. Over the last month, the Wolf Pack have howled at the moon. During that stretch, they’re No. 11 in effective field-goal percentage offense, shooting 51.2% from two and a downright obnoxious 45.3% from three.
With a dynamic backcourt featuring Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas (who stand at a lengthy 6-foot-6 and 6-4, respectively) and a plus frontcourt highlighted by walking double-double Nick Davidson, Nevada possesses the necessary multidimensionality to disrupt the entire West Region. Additionally, over 23.8% of its points come at the free-throw line. That’s key in an expected tight affair.
Defensively, the Wolf Pack are hardly toothless. Though slotting at a fair No. 137 in eFG D, they’re one of the better 3-pointer challenging teams in the field. Over the last eight games, Nevada has surrendered a mere 30.7% along the arc. Also terrific sealing off the glass, it limits opponents to many one-and-done possessions.
As for Dayton, the Flyers have crash-landed. Over their last six games, they were a not-so-nice No. 69 overall, according to BartTorvik. Also, they ranked No. 235 in eFG defense, yielding 52.6% from two and 34.8% from three.
Giving credit where it's due, Anthony Grant’s team has nuclear tendencies on offense. DaRon Holmes, a KenPom Player of the Year candidate nearly the entire season, is an unquestionable beast. As a collective, the Flyers have scorched the scoreboard since mid-February, shooting 44.7% along the perimeter. However, they’re No. 315 in turnover percentage offense, as self-inflicted wounds have plagued them.
Nevada was a superb 8-3 in true road games in the regular season, recording a marquee, out-of-conference win against fellow NCAA Tournament participant TCU (88-75 in the Diamond Head Classic). Along the Great Salt Lake, the Wolf Pack will bury a slumping Dayton team that is just 3-3 straight-up in its last six games.
Season record: 20-17, +5.58 units
BONUS TIME — Colorado State ML vs. Texas (+124, DraftKings)