Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — 2-leg: Gonzaga -7.5 (alt), Saint Mary’s ML (+100, DraftKings)
The last time the Dons and Bulldogs met, in the first ever collegiate game played inside Chase Center, not even an in-disguise Steph Curry could have saved the hosts.
Suffice it to say, Chris Gerlufsen’s team was chum to the meat-craving sharks swimming in San Francisco Bay.
In the 86-68 walloping by Gonzaga on Feb. 29, the normally three reliable Dons shot a terrible 28.0% along the arc while the squad surrendered an equally deflating 1.16 points per possession. Only days removed from earning all the bourbon by defeating Kentucky at Rupp Arena, the Zags silenced even the harshest “undeserving at-large” critics with an emphatic 70-57 victory at Saint Mary’s to put an exclamation point on the regular season.
Gonzaga is back — WAY back — but will San Francisco serve up a heaping plate of revenge Monday in the WCC Tournament semifinals?
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans’ NCAA Tournament projections ]
The Bulldogs’ resurrection is largely steeped in their offense. Winners in 12 of their final 13 contests, they enter the postseason searing.
Over that torrid stretch, Gonzaga has posted THE highest effective field-goal percentage mark in the game, converting a downright stupid 61.7% from two and 39.1% from three. Graham Ike’s effective pivots inside, Ryan Nembhard’s downhill nimbleness and Nolan Hickman’s long-distance drains have reduced defenders to ash.
Though not metal melting defensively, the Zags have emitted some heat. Since Feb. 1, they rank No. 100 in eFG D, giving up only 45.1% from two. Ike, Anton Watson and Ben Gregg have done an excellent job packing the paint. That success, however, has come at a cost along the perimeter. Over their last nine games, the Fightin' John Stocktons rank No. 275 in 3-point percentage D, surrendering a horrid 36.9%.
San Francisco, when on, is quite the treat offensively, as evidenced by its No. 27 ranking in eFG offense since early February. Slotting at No. 7 nationally in near-proximity efficiency per Haslametrics, the Dons typically clean up around the tin. Jonathan Mogbo, Marcus Williams and Ndewedo Newbury each net over 55% inside the arc.
Ultimately, Zags-Dons Part III comes down to rim protection and equalizers. With Mark Few’s crew excelling on both fronts, a Saint Mary’s-Gonzaga collision course for the WCC tourney title seems like a foregone conclusion, yet again.
Season record: 13-13, +0.68 units
BONUS TIME — Montana -6.5 vs. Portland State (-110, CZR)