Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — SGP: Saint Mary’s ML, UNDER 138.5 (+136, DK w/profit boost)
Before the ball dropped on 2023, Saint Mary’s was in a state of disarray. Though the Gaels faced a string of quality opponents, some in a neutral environment, they stood a dumbfounding 3-5 in early December.
Randy Bennett’s signature suffocating half-court defense was half-baked, and, most disgustingly, bucket conversions were infrequent, especially from 3-point range. Also, Aidan Mahaney’s regression was intense. Suffice it to say, Saint Mary’s resembled a team destined for the CBI, not the NCAAs.
Then the calendar flipped.
The Gaels have been a completely different team since those dark December days. They’re arguably the hottest team west of the Mississippi.
Over the past month, Saint Mary’s ranks sixth overall in BartTorvik’s analytics as well as No. 18 in eFG offense and No. 3 in eFG defense. Slow and methodical in pace as always (No. 354 in adjusted tempo), the Gaels are back to applying headlocks defensively and delivering swift kicks from outside offensively (42.1 3PT%). Australian import Alex Ducas, who was ice cold during the non-conference slump, is shooting a godlike 46.2% on 3s. Crikey!
Saint Mary’s owns the nation’s second-longest winning streak (13), constructing a No. 5-to-No. 6 seed NCAA Tournament resume.
To be fair, San Francisco has slayed away from Sobrato Center. The Dons are 6-3 straight up in visitor venues, slotting top-75 in eFG offense and defense. That success likely explains why shot quality has them losing by just three in Moraga. Still, they haven’t exactly challenged the perimeter, giving up 39.1% from 3 over the last 30 days (No. 322 in the country).
Saint Mary’s has once again rediscovered its holy rolling ways. Due to defensive intensity and sizzling outside execution, the Gaels should cruise to a sweat-free cover. Recall that they pummeled USF 77-60 at their house on Jan. 20 with the usual D (0.91 points per possession allowed) and 3s (11 for 23) formula.
In the Battle of the Bay, I’m riding the hotter hand. At plus money, give this terrible bettor the SGP scribbled above.
Season record: 2-3, -1.20 units
BONUS TIME — SGP: Nevada -9.5, OVER 134.5 (-110, MGM)