The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise -- fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Cincinnati Bengals
Fantasy value - Joe Burrow, QB (ADP: 34.33, QB3) - This mindreader knows exactly what you’re thinking: The third-best QB in average fantasy drafts isn’t exactly a steal of a deal. But oftentimes slipping into the early fourth round of yearly drafts, he's a bottle of Casamigos anejo available at a discounted price. For willing investors, drafting a combination of elite RBs, WRs or TEs in Rounds 1-3 means taking a sip on the Bengals passer at his price point would pack quite the buzz.
Burrow may not be a fan of boats, but purchase a ride on Cincinnati’s luxury yacht and your team is bound to stay afloat.
Last year, the modern day Joe Cool set the NFL pace in pass yards. Zac Taylor’s overly forgiving D combined with the presence of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, amplified the franchise QB’s overall volume. Pinpoint accurate, he finished top five in four different completion percentage categories. Burrow also connected on a career-best 43 touchdowns.
Considering his surrounding environment, that production level could easily be duplicated.
Throw in the likelihood he’ll run more seasons removed from knee issues and finishing atop the QB ranks is entirely doable.
Yes, his projected fantasy QB strength of schedule isn’t attractive and Cincy’s offensive line is sure to place him often under constant duress, but given his dynamite baseline skills and bevy of weapons, he’s unlikely to regress.
As we detailed before, bank on Burrow to ball out, yet again.
Prop pick - Chase Brown 1,000+ rush yards (+175, DraftKings) - As an Illinois graduate and football season-ticket holder, Orange and Blue blood admittedly pumps vigorously through this writer’s veins. Brown is a pet player, one who brought nothing but fantasy bliss to those who sunk a late-draft investment in him last year.
Entering the 2025 season as the organization’s indisputable top RB, Brown will only produce a louder BOOM.
Described as an “offensive focal point” by Bengals offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher, the former Illini could earn upwards of 75-80% of the team’s opportunity share. Clear backups Tahj Brooks and Samaje Perine will only provide a rare breather. Estimates of Brown registering 325+ total touches aren’t outlandish.
Adding to the argument, he was largely efficient in many key advanced categories last fall. In 16 games, he finished top 20 in total yards created (925), YAC per attempt (3.06) and missed tackles forced (46).
Understandably, Cincinnati’s rickety offensive line and No. 11 hardest fantasy RB strength of schedule are deterrents, but his projected volume, proven effectiveness and continuous light fronts faced are appealing.
Brown's fantasy price (ADP: 24.90, RB11) has steadily climbed throughout the summer, but as discussed previously, the betting markets haven’t acted in accordance. Take advantage.
Team lean - Bengals UNDER 9.5 regular season wins (+115, BetMGM) - Are we honestly buying the Bengals -- a team notorious for stumbling out of the gate -- won't repeatedly stub their toe in September and October? According to ESPN's Mike Clay, the Jungle Cats only has a 47% or greater win probability in two if its first six games.
Overall, Clay projects only 8.9 wins for Boomer Esiason's boys this year. Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Brown are sure to post ridiculous numbers, but in order to hang with the Ravens in the AFC North it's a must given Cincy's relaxed defense.
The offensive potency is undoubtedly there, but looming questions along the offensive line and on D -- Trey Hendrickson's hold-in (?) the most glaring -- suggests betting the UNDER at plus odds is a winning ticket.