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Each week, the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must have started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week. Scoring thresholds (0.5 PPR) – QB: 18 fantasy points; RB: 12 fantasy points (10 for shockers); WR: 11 fantasy points; TE: 10 fantasy points.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars
| Start pct. | 37% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | vs. Colts |
| BetMGM line | Jaguars -2.5 |
| BetMGM total | 46.5 points |
| BetAlytics projection | N/A |
In August, Thomas took his lumps throughout training camp and the preseason, which is par for the course for any rookie adjusting to the speed and aggressiveness of the NFL. Naturally, he slipped in fantasy drafts. Often plucked in the double-digit rounds as a bench flier by fortunate managers, he’s turned out to be a dollar scratcher that yielded a 500 times the return.
Presently a top-15 fantasy wide receiver in 0.5 PPR leagues, Thomas has rightfully earned his WR2 position. Through four weeks, he's averaged a dynamite 6.5 targets, 4.3 receptions and 68.8 yards per game. He’s also cut a rug in the end-zone twice.
Beyond the superficial data, Thomas also has greatly exceeded expectations. He ranks top-20 in yards per route run (2.43), route win percentage (66.7%), yards per reception (16.3) and yards per target (10.6). Whether on deep or intermediate routes, the dude simply wins. With at least 11 fantasy points scored in three of his first four games, he has all the characteristics of a consistency king.
This week, bank on Indianapolis DBs to kiss thy ring — specifically CB Jaylon Jones. Burned often in coverage, Thomas’ projected primary adversary has allowed a 64.0% catch rate, 14.4 yards per reception and the seventh-most yards (231) of any DB in the league.
Trevor Lawrence hasn’t exactly earned his Pert Plus, but in an advantageous matchup against a Colts secondary that's No. 24 in pass EPA D, the modern-day Blonde Bomber connects with Thomas on a deep ball or three.
Geaux, LSU Tiger. Geaux.
Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 74 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.9 fantasy points
Week 5 Bonus Flames
Romeo Doubs, WR, Packers
| Start pct. | 10% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | at Rams |
Dontayvion Wicks has the fantasy football community head over heels. The perceived heartthrob, coming off a 5-78-2 performance in Week 3, has those who acquired his services disrobing. Earlier this week, managers emptied the FAAB bank in droves to grab him. He could deliver on high expectations, but don’t be shocked if Doubs outperforms him on Sunday. Correct, this scribe penned that line roughly 11 sheets to the wind. However, it’s entirely plausible. Doubs’ projected assignment, CB Tre’Davious White, is a shell of what he once was in Buffalo. This season on 133 coverage snaps, no DB has surrendered a higher passer rating (147.8) than him. Overall, he’s served up 151 yards, 16.8 yards per catch and a league-high four touchdowns. Doubs, who scored eight TDs last year, has yet to find the end zone despite solid returns in aDOT (14.0), yards per route run (2.03) and passer rating when targeted (102.8). Given White’s friendliness, that futile streak ends.
Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 53 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 13.3 fantasy points
Noah Gray, TE, Chiefs
| Start pct. | 1% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | vs. Saints |
Bill Murray in "Groundhog Day." That’s the life Rashee Rice investors are living right now. It remains unknown exactly how long his absence will be, but it will almost certainly be substantial. In a next-man-up league, Justin Watson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Gray stand to immediately benefit. The former Dukie could be a sneaky production source for dice rollers in deeper leagues. Working in Travis Kelce’s enormous shadow, Gray has only had sporadic moments in his three-year career. However, his increased role and surprisingly bright secondary profile suggest he’s worth the gamble. He ranks top-12 among TEs in catchable target rate, aDOT (7.0), yards per route run (2.65), yards per target (10.0), yards per reception (11.3) and fantasy points per route run (0.50). He’s only averaged 8.5 routes per game, but bank on that number to nearly double in Week 6. The Saints have yielded 4.3 receptions and 54.3 yards per game to tight ends this season. Philly’s Dallas Goedert is still running freely down the left sideline against them. For fantasy, a Gray day would actually be bright.
Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 40 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 12.0 fantasy points
Season record: 7-6