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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime)
Prop Play: James Cook OVER 2.5 receptions (+111, DraftKings w/boost)
The Bobby Flay of running backs is about to serve up a sizzling plate of BBQ. Perfectly smoked, slathered in sauce and satisfying to any appetite, his sticky-finger display should be finger lickin' good.
Active as a pass catcher in a surprising Week 1 shootout against Arizona, Cook ran 12 routes, earned a healthy 13.0% of the target share and snagged all three of Josh Allen’s spirals en route to 32 receiving yards. He also impressively averaged 2.67 yards per route run and participated in the passing game on 52.2% of his snaps.
Given Allen’s spread-the-love tendencies and Miami’s blanketing DBs — Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller allowed a combined 40.6 passer rating against the Jaguars in Week 1 — underneath Allen-to-Cook connections could be semi-frequent. In his two meetings against Miami last year, Cook went under in one and over in the other.
In his first battle with the familiar foe this season, he squeezes at least three passes in a presumed scoreboard-chasing affair for Buffalo.
Prop season record: 2-2, -0.10 units
SGP: Josh Allen 25+ rushing yards, Dalton Kincaid 25+ receiving yards, Tyreek Hill 75+ receiving yards (+145, BetMGM)
Josh Allen 25+ rushing yards. Hand discomfort and all, Allen should continue to do what he does best: flattening fools in the open field with his powerful 6-foot-5, 237-pound frame. In the opener against the Desert Birds, he called his own number nine times, rushing for 39 yards and two touchdowns. Last week against Miami, Trevor Lawrence only escaped from the pocket once, scooting for an 8-yard gain. In fact, the Dolphins finished the week No. 3 in rush EPA D. Yes, Allen only bolted for 17 yards in Week 4 against Miami last season, but in the Week 18 rematch, he rolled to 67 rushing yards. On a likely 8-10 carries, he crosses the lowered alt-market threshold.
Dalton Kincaid 25+ receiving yards. Criminally overlooked. That best describes the lack of usage Kincaid logged in Week 1. Though he ran a route on all 25 snaps played, Kincaid enticed only two targets from Allen, catching one for 11 yards. For Buffalo’s primary slot receiver, the underperformance was nothing short of mystifying. Bank on a bounce back. In two 2023 contests against Miami, he totaled 11 receptions for 111 yards on 13 targets. Mostly drawing Kader Kohou out of the slot, Kincaid should earn Allen’s affections against one of the most accommodating slot corners in the NFL last year. Against Jacksonville last Sunday, Kouhou yielded five receptions for 67 yards and posted a 104.2 passer rating allowed. Kincaid cashes.
Tyreek Hill 75+ receiving yards. Hill’s weekly production could mirror what he earns in an eventual winning lawsuit against Miami-Dade authorities. After the much-publicized law enforcement encounter last week, he was slightly motivated. Erupting for seven receptions, 130 yards and a LONG TD in Week 1, he should again burn rubber. Last season, the Bills somewhat held him in check, conceding 10 receptions, 140 yards and a score in two games. However, the Buffalo secondary is as vulnerable, if not more, this year. The Bills’ No. 21 dropback EPA ranking from Week 1 is a precursor of more WR burnings to come. Hill’s projected primary dance partner, CB Christian Benford, has only allowed 12.1 yards per catch and an 87.3 passer rating in his career. However, The Cheetah, who accounted for the most YAC (84 yards) and the third-highest yards per route run (4.33) in Week 1, dusts EVERYONE.
SGP season record: 0-3, -3.00 units