The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: New Orleans Saints.
Fantasy value — Taysom HIll, QB/TE (ADP: 168.57, TE18)
The NFL’s ultimate Swiss Army knife has all the tools to cut through the competition. He can execute as a passer, rusher or receiver, lining up in various formations and employing movements designed to throw off defenses.
In Yahoo leagues, Hill is currently only eligible at QB, but at other sites he still possesses TE status. Regardless, with SuperFlex formats all the rage, he’s an intriguing option who could adequately plug gaps during bye-heavy weeks by contributing the occasional double-digit fantasy scoring output. Keep in mind that Derek Carr posted a 114.9 passer rating last season when targeting Hill. On top of that, the former BYU standout racked an appreciable 2.90 yards after contact per attempt on the ground.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Of course, Hill’s value is entirely tied to your league’s position designation. If TE eligible, he’s a prime late-draft target at his Round 14 ADP in 12-team and deeper leagues. As for salary cappers, you could do worse at $1.
Come January, the jack-of-all-trades could finish in the range of 100-150 passing yards, 2-4 passing touchdowns, 300 rushing yards, 35 receptions, 300 receiving yards and 4-6 rushing/receiving TDs. Highlight his name, deep thinkers.
Prop pick — Alvin Kamara OVER 625.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
- DraftKings offer: Bet $5 and get $150 in Bonus Bets
A balance ball training boss during the offseason, Kamara has worked tirelessly in hopes of getting back to his highly effective multidimensional ways. Over the past three seasons, various physical ailments have kept him sidelined. During that stretch, he’s played 15 games or more only once.
When not nicked, Kamara can be a marvelous across-the-board scorer. Last year, however, he forced a pedestrian 22 missed tackles on 180 rushing attempts and finished an unsavory RB69 in YAC per attempt (2.51). As a result, the former popular first-round fantasy pick has undergone a considerable ADP slashing. In early 0.5 PPR exercises, his average draft position sits at a very affordable 66.63 (RB17).
Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams will be involved, but Kamara is likely locked into at least 14-16 carries per game. That’s a solid workload operating behind a top-half Saints offensive line.
What’s most alluring about Kamara’s otherwise disappointing 2023? He was No. 2 in expected fantasy points per game (19.6) and No. 9 in total red-zone touches (46).
If Kamara can stiff-arm the injury imp, he should easily juke defenders for 700 or more rushing yards. Don’t forget: New Orleans has the 13th-easiest projected schedule among fantasy RBs.
Team lean — Saints OVER 7.5 wins (-120, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
On the surface, this is a layup on par with Simone Biles winning all the women’s gymnastics golds at the Paris Olympics. Frankly, the offered number should be a full win higher.
Offensive questions aside, Dennis Allen’s club has a top-10 defense and the league’s fourth-easiest projected schedule. ESPN’s Mike Clay gives New Orleans a 50% or greater win probability in 10 games. Even if the Fleur-de-lis drop coin-flip matchups against the Chargers and Rams and split against division foes Atlanta and Tampa Bay, they’re still likely to emerge with eight Ws.
Yes, Carr is a lemon, but the Saints should exceed low expectations in a division ripe for the picking.