The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Philadelphia Eagles.
Fantasy value — DeVonta Smith, WR (ADP: 117.23, WR25)
Available on average outside the top 100 overall picks in PPR formats, the Slim Reaper is a mid-draft Rip Van Winkle who can lure opponents to sleep.
A consistency king in 2023, Smith scored under 10.0 PPR fantasy points just five times in 16 games. For the second straight season, he amassed over 1,050 yards, 80 receptions and scored seven TDs.
If he can display improvement in several critical secondary analytics (e.g. aDOT, route win percentage and yards per route run), Smith could establish new career highs in multiple categories, but that expectation should be somewhat tempered in what’s sure to be a ground-centered attack. He’s a top-20 WR who’s available at a borderline WR3 price.
Prop pick — Jalen Hurts UNDER 23.5 passing TDs (-135, DraftKings)
There’s a reason why this number is juiced to a pricey but not outrageous -135 at DraftKings. Any shrewd line shopper will tell you it’s a discount-rack purchase. At BetMGM, the exact same prop is a full two passing TDs lower. Subsequently, the UNDER on 23.5 screams VALUE.
The Brotherly Shove peddler is likely to land in the 20-22 passing TDs range. Yes, Hurts is still blessed with the A.J. Brown and Smith dynamic WR duo, but the addition of Saquon Barkley should lean into Philly’s ground-heavy identity.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Last season, the Eagles finished with the seventh-lowest pass rate in the league (54.94%). New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is bound to feature more motion, but it’s unlikely Philly will suddenly uncork early and often vertically.
Change is in the air on the offensive line after Jason Kelce's retirement. However, it's still a projected top-10 unit. Knowing that, Nick Siranni’s run-first desire is unlikely to be squelched. Hurts and Barkley, when healthy, are just too damn effective plowing through defenders.
Hurts’ career peak in passing TDs is 23, which he achieved last year. With that in mind and based on the arguments above, pressing pause on Mellencamp is recommended.
Team lean — Eagles OVER 10.5 wins (+105, BetMGM)
According to ESPN’s Mike Clay, the Eagles own the fifth-easiest schedule entering the 2024 season. As a result, the respected prognosticator gives them a win probability of 52% or higher in 12 games.
Philadelphia’s suspect frontline defense, understandably, raises uneasiness, but with arguably a top-five offense and excellent O-line, it’s probable Hurts and company pump fists in victory at least 11 times.