The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: New England Patriots.
Fantasy value — Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP: 125.62, RB23)
For fans of the old SirusXM show, crank the Lady Gaga. Stevenson is New England’s unquestioned early down rusher. Antonio Gibson will spell him roughly 8-10 times per game, but Stevenson’s overall opportunity share should land in the 60% to 70% range.
Last season, the veteran ranked an unexciting RB38 in yards created per touch, RB36 in yards after contact per attempt (2.80) and RB48 in fantasy points per opportunity. Clearly none of those important metrics move the meter, but his expected fantasy points per game, per PlayerProfiler, checked in at No. 19. Not to be overlooked, Stevenson also grabbed 38 passes in only 12 games.
Legit concerns exist with game script, the Patriots’ suspect offensive line (No. 21 projected unit, according to ESPN’s Mike Clay) and injury downsides. Still, Stevenson is a cheap basher who should turn a profit if he plays at least 14 games. At a discounted RB2 price, he should be a target for the wait-on-RBs crowd.
Prop pick — Drake Maye to lead rookie QBs in passing yards (+1600, DraftKings)
Truth be told, it’s a barren wasteland in the props market on any New England player. But for the overly optimistic gamers in attendance, sprinkling a little action on Maye to set the rookie passing yards pace at 16/1 isn’t a guaranteed donation.
Admittedly, the odds of this hitting rank up there with Tom Brady agreeing to do another televised roast. (But the kids, Tom, THE KIDS!). Still, this is a franchise in a post-Belichick transition with numerous holes on both sides of the ball. With the Patriots likely the underdog in almost every game, negative scripts and garbage-time situations could be routine. What better way for Maye to grip and rip?
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Some in the scouting community are split on how the No. 3 overall pick will perform in the NFL. However, most agree he is an effective middle-of-the-field passer who’s equipped with the arm velocity and mobility to execute at an above-average level. Last year with North Carolina, he ranked top-10 in big-time throw percentage but No. 7 in turnover-worthy passes. Again, you can understand the dichotomy.
New head coach Jerod Mayo recently said Maye and Jacoby Brissett will battle for the starting gig in training camp. If the rookie earns the job straightaway and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt works his magic, there’s interesting first-year potential for Maye. However, a receiving arsenal featuring Kendrick Bourne, Demario Douglas, K.J. Osborn and Hunter Henry doesn’t spike confidence.
Team lean — Patriots UNDER 5.5 wins (-140, FanDuel)
Long gone are the glory days filled with cherished moments and Super Bowl rings. This is a Patriots team with glaring flaws, a likely inexperienced QB under center and a daunting schedule (No. 2 projected toughest, per Sharp Football). Some ‘books have the number at 4.5 victories, but with a one-win cushion at FanDuel, fading New England at -140 is appetizing.