The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: New York Jets.
Fantasy value — Mike Williams, WR (ADP: 184.89, WR53)
Tumbling in early drafts, Big Mike is an alluring later-round depth add in 12-team drafts. His recovery from last season's Week 3 ACL injury clouds his early impact, but with reports of an on-schedule Week 1 return, Williams’ prospects are promising.
Aaron Rodgers was just QB20 in deep-ball completion percentage two years ago. Still, taking snaps behind a rigid offensive line should provide him ample time to unleash downfield to one of the game’s best long-bomb specialists. If everything clicks, a 60-1050-6 campaign for Williams isn’t a pipe dream.
Prop pick — Aaron Rodgers UNDER 26.5 passing TDs (-125, DraftKings)
At 40 years ancient, Rodgers is coming off an Achilles injury. It’s difficult to fathom that he tosses at least 27 touchdowns. Only three QBs in NFL history — Tom Brady, Brett Favre and Drew Brees — chucked that many end-zone strikes in a single season at 40 or older. And the weapons surrounding them were arguably better.
In Rodgers’ last full season in 2022 with Green Bay, he threw 26 TD passes. Displaying plus accuracy, he finished that year No. 5 among QBs in red-zone completion percentage and a respectable No. 15 in overall adjusted completion percentage. Still, Father Time is undefeated. And, no, fading him isn’t some wildly spun conspiracy theory.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Garrett Wilson is an undeniable baller who possesses the separation skills to deliver a Davante Adams-like return. Williams, too, is a premier field-stretcher as a big-bodied and proven chunk gainer when healthy. RB Breece Hall and TE Tyler Conklin are reliable pass catchers who boost the optimism.
However, despite the supporting cast and positive trends associated with his experimental Achilles repair, Rodgers is most likely to finish in the 24-25 TD pass range. Yes, even given his familiarity with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. And, no, fading him isn't some wildly spun conspiracy theory.
Team lean — Jets OVER 9.5 wins (-120, BetMGM)
The Jets have the necessary components to quickly wash away the misery of last season’s 7-10 record. The offensive line, secondary, linebacker corps and edge rush project as top-10 units.
If Rodgers can stave off the injury imp, New York will win at least 10 games. ESPN’s Mike Clay gives it a 60% or better chance to win 13 games.
It’s not outlandish to think the Jets, blessed with the fourth-easiest schedule per Sharp Football, emerge as one of the AFC’s best.