The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Buffalo Bills.
Fantasy value — Keon Coleman, WR (ADP: 191.65, WR69)
The rookie’s playful attitude alone already has him squarely on the radar among the fantasy masses. Hey, the man knows where to look for deals on colorful jackets. For the budget-minded, he’s also a phenomenal find on the discount rack in early fantasy drafts. Keep in mind Josh Allen lobbied behind the scenes for the Bills to select him with the 33rd overall pick.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
At 6-foot-4, Coleman is a lengthy, quick-twitch receiver with an excellent athletic profile. His advanced analytics compiled last year at Florida State raised concerns, especially when it comes to separation, but he owns alpha-like skills and, as tracked by Pro Football Focus, excelled on slants (133.8 passer rating), routes he could thrive in now that Stefon Diggs is in Houston.
Don’t go bonkers, but 750-plus yards and 4-6 TDs are entirely achievable for Coleman in Year 1. Remember, Buffalo’s current No. 1 and No. 2 WRs are Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir, wideouts who don’t own the box-out size like the rook.
Prop pick — Josh Allen to win NFL MVP (+800, DraftKings)
Reminded annually of my horrific misfire on the QB every NFL Draft, the two-time Pro Bowl selection just continues to add to the hot take humiliation.
Given the talent exodus in Buffalo on both sides of the ball, the pressure on Allen to perform only increases. Still an intimidating runner who’s greatly improved as a passer (No. 8 in adjusted completion percentage in 2023), his added responsibilities and questionable surrounding weapons could ratchet the “M-V-P!” chants if he approaches career statistical output.
Yes, Patrick Mahomes is the front-runner at +600 — shocking — but Allen, on the surface, is a terrific value at 8/1.
Team lean — Bills UNDER 10.5 wins (-120, BetMGM)
According to Sharp Football, the Bills have the 10th-easiest projected schedule. That suggests the lean here is presumably moronic, but given the doubts about Buffalo’s near-bottom projected offensive line (No. 27 per ESPN’s Mike Clay), overhauled receiving corps and somewhat reconfigured defense (No. 13 overall projected unit), 11 victories seems a little rich.