When the calendar turns to May, we can count on the Kentucky Derby to be there on the first Saturday of the month. The 150th running of horse racing’s most prestigious race has a 6:57 p.m. ET post time at Churchill Downs. It will be the 12th race of the day at the Louisville track, as there will be plenty of action for people dressed in elaborate outfits at the track and bettors wagering from all over the world.
Before looking closer at the top storyline and the field of the first leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, the most important thing to know about horse betting is it’s different from normal sports betting.
When you bet on a horse, the odds you get are where the horse closes at when the race starts. For example if you bet a horse at 8/1 to win and it closes at 5/1 before the race, then the odds for your bet is 5/1. This is something to keep in mind for those used to betting other sports where you are locked into the odds when the bet is placed.
A lot has changed in 150 years... pic.twitter.com/q3RGzIqP18
— FanDuel Racing (Formerly TVG) (@FanDuel_Racing) May 1, 2024
The Kentucky Derby has always been a tougher event to handicap because of the amount of horses running. Anything can happen with 20 three-year-old horses on the track. Also, horses who get off to slow starts can have trouble catching up in the mile-and-a-quarter race.
The other Triple Crown events are the Preakness Stakes (May 18) and Belmont Stakes (June 8). Those races usually offer better betting opportunities because of the the smaller fields of horses and chances to bet on more well-rested horses who skipped the Kentucky Derby.
Here’s a closer look at the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
What is the biggest storyline?
The biggest story doesn’t have to do with an animal. It involves controversial trainer Bob Baffert.
The last time a Baffert-trained horse raced in the Kentucky Derby was in 2021, when Medina Spirit won the race before eventually being disqualified for failing a post-race drug test. Churchill Downs originally suspended Baffert for two years, but it added another year to the ban to keep his horses out of Saturday’s race.
That means Muth, Baffert’s horse who won the Arkansas Derby in late March, won’t be part of this year’s Kentucky Derby. Muth figured to be one of the betting favorites on Saturday, so keep an eye out for him if he participates in the other Triple Crown races.
Who are the favorites to win?
The two clear favorites are Fierceness (5/2 on the morning line) and Sierra Leone (3/1).
Fierceness is a Todd Pletcher-trained horse who dazzled his last time out at the Florida Derby. A potential knock on Fierceness has to do with his starting post.
If Fierceness wins, he'll break the historical trend of no horse starting from post 17 winning the Kentucky Derby. It’s the only position in the first 20 not to ever produce a winner. However, Pletcher said he’s happy with the outside draw for his horse, so that post position won’t deter me from keying on Fierceness on my bet slips.
Morning line favorite, Fierceness, out for a Thursday morning gallop @ChurchillDowns.#KentuckyDerby150 pic.twitter.com/xkKWzpUYYf
— Marty Smith (@MartySmithESPN) May 2, 2024
Sierra Leone has more of a challenge after drawing post No. 2. Being that close to the rail means the horse could fall back early and not have a path to get up to the pack until later in the race. Even if he does, that might be too late.
I’m going to take a stand against Sierra Leone and exclude the horse in exacta and trifecta bets.
Who are other horses to watch?
A horse I’ll include in exactas and trifectas is Catching Freedom (8/1) out of post position 4. Flavien Prat will be the jockey on Catching Freedom, who is one of three horses trained by Louisville native Brad Cox. Catching Freedom won the Louisiana Derby in March and proved he has the stamina to run a long race.
I will tweet out my bets when I place them, but Fierceness and Catching Freedom will definitely be involved in my exotics.