In the comedy classic “Twins,” the main characters (played by Jersey Mike’s enthusiast Danny DeVito and State Farm Insurance “NEIGHBA” Arnold Schwarzenegger) are blood matches, but the fraternal brothers — separated at birth — are non-identical in virtually every imaginable way.
Hey, NFL wide receiver Mike Evans can empathize. My in-name-only “cousin” inherited every athletic trait ever known to this side of the Evans family.
Jokes aside, the “unrelated-related approach” is a tremendous way to attack the same-game parlay market in sports betting. For the unaware, it’s the strategy of combining three to four alt-lines/props offered in an isolated game, but with a key twist — one leg can’t match the parlay’s general theme (e.g. starting pitcher walks allowed though you bet on that SP’s team on the ML).
Constructing SGPs, especially in baseball, with uncorrelated options is a cheat code of sorts. It tricks the algorithm to increase the odds, even on legs at significant minus money.
All right, enough no-NFL-catches Evans! Put your half-baked strategy into practice.
Here’s an unrelated-related SGP in Friday’s Cubs-Mariners matchup that jives with what is outlined above.
Leg 1: Mariners ML.
Victories have been a rarity for Seattle so far this season. On the losing end in seven of their last 10 games, the M’s have stumbled out of the gate in a drunken stupor.
Still, the Cubs, in the midst of a brutal West Coast road trip, have dropped four of their first games six away from Wrigley Field. With a ghastly 6.27 ERA and No. 20 in wRC+ on the road, they’re highly fadeable.
Leg 2: Julio Rodriguez hit.
J-Rod’s fondness for hitting against left-handers is on par with how Norm McDonald loved making jokes about O.J. Simpson. The young slugger simply tees off against them. Already 3-for-10 against LHPs this season, he has hit .290 against southpaws in his career.
Chicago’s lefty starter Jordan Wicks is very much on notice. In his first 8 2/3 innings this year, Wicks has allowed an undesirable 11 hits. His skyward 30.8 line-drive percentage and No. 277 standing in exit velocity allowed suggest more rocky outings are in his future.
Rodriguez sprays at least one hit into the outfield.
Leg 3 (the twist): Bryce Miller 1+ BB.
And here’s the bend in the road.
In 79 career innings at T-Mobile Park, Miller owns a 2.05 BB/9 ratio. Honestly, that’s rock solid. However, the Cubs are one of the most patient teams in the majors, ranking No. 2 in road walk rate (12.1%).
Whether it’s Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger or Dansby Swanson, odds are strong that Miller will issue at least one free pass. Keep in mind, he’s walked at least one batter in his first two rotation turns his year.
Parlay odds: +180 (Built at DraftKings)
DraftKings offers:
Yes, the juice isn’t life changing, but despite what social media chest thumpers would lead one to believe, responsible sports betting is about building bankroll and supplying entertainment to the games we’re watching. Take advantage of what the legal ‘books give you.
No locks, guarantees or easy money exists in gambling. However, if one wisely subscribes to the unrelated-related strategy, plus units are likely to be achieved.
And that’s no laughing matter.